Keir Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Halt Andy Burnham' Campaign to Block Mayor's Commons Comeback
Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a coordinated effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.
Serious Barriers in the Candidate Selection Procedure
A number of figures on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are anxious to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour hierarchy is said to have swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted consternation in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially contest the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
A number of insiders also expressed fears about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to launch a significant campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.
